Evaluation of a 30-gene paclitaxel, fluorouracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy response predictor in a multicenter randomized trial in breast cancer.

PURPOSE We examined in a prospective, randomized, international clinical trial the performance of a previously defined 30-gene predictor (DLDA-30) of pathologic complete response (pCR) to preoperative weekly paclitaxel and fluorouracil, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide (T/FAC) chemotherapy, and assessed if DLDA-30 also predicts increased sensitivity to FAC-only chemotherapy. We compared the pCR rates after T/FAC versus FACx6 preoperative chemotherapy. We also did an exploratory analysis to identify novel candidate genes that differentially predict response in the two treatment arms. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN Two hundred and seventy-three patients were randomly assigned to receive either weekly paclitaxel × 12 followed by FAC × 4 (T/FAC, n = 138), or FAC × 6 (n = 135) neoadjuvant chemotherapy. All patients underwent a pretreatment fine-needle aspiration biopsy of the tumor for gene expression profiling and treatment response prediction. RESULTS The pCR rates were 19% and 9% in the T/FAC and FAC arms, respectively (P < 0.05). In the T/FAC arm, the positive predictive value (PPV) of the genomic predictor was 38% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 21-56%], the negative predictive value was 88% (95% CI, 77-95%), and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.711. In the FAC arm, the PPV was 9% (95% CI, 1-29%) and the AUC was 0.584. This suggests that the genomic predictor may have regimen specificity. Its performance was similar to a clinical variable-based predictor nomogram. CONCLUSIONS Gene expression profiling for prospective response prediction was feasible in this international trial. The 30-gene predictor can identify patients with greater than average sensitivity to T/FAC chemotherapy. However, it captured molecular equivalents of clinical phenotype. Next-generation predictive markers will need to be developed separately for different molecular subsets of breast cancers.